Downstream Demand haisati yatanga iyo Yakaderera Domestic Cotton Mutengo Shock - China Cotton Market Weekly Report (Nyamavhuvhu 12-16, 2024)

[Pfupiso] Mitengo yedonje yemumba kana kuti icharamba ichiderera. Mwaka wepamusoro wemusika wemachira wave kusvika, asi iko kudiwa chaiko hakusati kwabuda, mukana wekuti mabhizinesi emachira avhure uchiri kudzikira, uye mutengo weshinda yedonje unoramba uchidonha. Parizvino, kukura kwedonje kutsva kwakanaka, kuwedzera kwekugadzira kunotarisirwa kuramba kusingachinji uye nguva yekunyora inogona kunge iri pamberi pegore rapfuura. Panguva imwecheteyo, mutero wekotoni wekunze unotsvedza mutero uchapihwa munguva pfupi, uye kudzikira kwemitengo yedonje yemumba hakuzodzike.

I. Kuongororwa kwemutengo wevhiki ino
Kubva Nyamavhuvhu 12 kusvika 16, avhareji mutengo wekugadzirisa weZhengzhou donje remangwana main kontrakiti yaive 13,480 yuan/ton, pasi 192 yuan/ton kubva svondo rapfuura, pasi 1.4%; Indekisi yenyika yedonje Mutengo B, inomiririra mutengo wemusika weiyo standard giredhi lint munyika, yakaenzana 14,784 yuan/tani, yakaderera 290 yuan/tani kubva svondo rapfuura, kana 1.9%. New York donje remangwana main contract settlement avhareji mutengo we67.7 cents/pound, up 0.03 cents/pound kubva svondo rapfuura, zvakati sandara; Avhareji yemutengo weindekisi yedonje yepasi rose (M) inomiririra avhareji mutengo wedonje rakatengwa kunze kwenyika pachiteshi chengarava cheChina waive 76.32 cents/paundi, wakakwira 0.5 cents/paundi kubva svondo rapfuura, uye mutengo wekupinza weRMB 13,211 yuan/ton ( yakaverengerwa ne1% mutero, tisingasanganisire Hong Kong zvakasiyana uye kutakura zvinhu), kusvika pa88 yuan/tani kubva svondo rapfuura, wakawedzera 0.7%. Mutengo wedonje wepamba wakakwira 1573 yuan/tani kupfuura mutengo wedonje wepasi rose, unova 378 yuan/tani nhete pane svondo rapfuura. Avhareji mutengo wepamba C32S general comb pure donje warn i21,758 yuan/tani, pasi 147 yuan/ton kubva svondo rapfuura. Mutengo weshinda yakajairwa i22222 yuan/ton, yakafanana nesvondo rapfuura. Mutengo wepolyester staple fiber i7488 yuan/tani, pasi 64 yuan/tani kubva svondo rapfuura.

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Chechipiri, maonero emusika ari pedyo
(1) Musika wepasi rose
Zvinhu zvinofadza zvakaonekwa, mitengo yekotoni kana ichadzikama. Dhipatimendi reUS Department of Agriculture yeNyamavhuvhu rekupa uye kudiwa kweshumo rakafanotaura kugadzirwa kwedonje reUS kwematani 3.29 miriyoni muna 2024/25, kudzikira kwematani mazana mana nemakumi mana ezviuru kubva pamwedzi wapfuura, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekusanaya kwedonje kuri kuramba kuchiwedzera mudunhu reUS rinogadzira donje. The USDA Drought Monitor inoshuma kuti inenge 22 muzana yenzvimbo dzekugadzira donje dzakakanganiswa nekusanaya kwemvura kubva vhiki ino, kubva pa13 muzana vhiki yapfuura. Zvinoenderana nehuwandu kubva kubazi rezvekurima reIndia, kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu 8, 2024/25 nzvimbo yekudyara donje yeIndia yaive miriyoni zana nemakumi matanhatu nematanhatu mu, zvichidzika ne8.9% gore negore, uye kugadzirwa kuri kufanotaura kuderera ne370,000 matani gore-pa-. gore. Zvichakadaro, data reDhipatimendi reCommerce reUS rakaratidza kuti kushandiswa kwekutengesa kweUS kwakakwira 1 muzana muna Chikunguru kubva kumwedzi wapfuura, danho repamusoro kubva muna Kukadzi 2023, zvichiita kuti musika usanetsekane nekuderera kweUS, zvichipa rutsigiro rwekuvandudzika kwemusika wezvigadzirwa. Sekureva kwemushumo weUnited States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu 6, ICE donje remangwana rekutengesa (vagadziri, vatengesi, processors) rakatora chinzvimbo chakareba 1156, kekutanga kubvira 2019 kushandura mambure, zvichireva kuti mari yeindasitiri inotenda kuti donje repasi rose. mitengo kana kuti vakapinda yakaderera valuation range. Zvakasanganiswa nezviri pamusoro apa, mitengo yedonje yepasi rose inotarisirwa kudzikama.
(2) Musika wepamba
Kudzika kwemvura kudiwa hakuna kuona kutanga, mitengo yekotoni yakaramba ichichinja pane yakaderera. Maererano neNational Bureau of Statistics, kutengeswa kwezvitoro zvembatya, shangu, ngowani uye zvigadzirwa zvemachira muChina muna Chikunguru zvaive 93,6 bhiriyoni Yuan, zvichidzika ne5.2% gore negore; Data yetsika yakaratidza kuti machira eChina nembatya aitengeswa kunze kwenyika muna Chikunguru aiva 26.8 mabhiriyoni emadhora ekuAmerica, zvichidzika ne0.5% gore negore. Kubva Nyamavhuvhu, musika wepamba wanga uchitarisira kune iri kuuya "goridhe pfumbamwe sirivheri gumi" yechinyakare inoda mwaka, asi mirairo haisati yaratidza zviratidzo zvekuvandudza. Zvinoenderana neongororo yenyika yedonje yekutarisa system yekuongorora, kutanga kwaNyamavhuvhu kwaive ongororo yemabhizinesi emachira kuvhura mukana we73.6%, pasi ne0.8 muzana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura, mhando dzeshinda dzakakora chete dzinoratidza zvimwe zviratidzo zvekudziya. kumuka-uye-kuona mamiriro ekunze achiri kurema, svondo rino mitengo yeshinda yedonje iri kuramba ichidzika. Parizvino, kukura kwedonje kuri nani, zvinotarisirwa kuti nguva yekunyorwa kwedonje ingave yapfuura gore rapfuura, uye mutero wekotoni wekotoni unotsvedza mutero wave kuda kupihwa, izvo zvinogona kuwedzera kudzvanywa pamitengo yedonje yepamba, uye mukana wekuenderera mberi nekuvhunduka kwakaderera kwakakura.

 


Nguva yekutumira: Aug-19-2024